The Risk level project (RNNP) by PSA in Norway publishes annually a report, based on collected data, to report the development of important HES indicators in the offshore and onshore petroleum industry. Among these are a ‘Total indicator’ for major hazard risk, based so far only on occurrence of precursor events, such as HC leaks, well control problems, structural failures, vessels on collision course, etc.
There was on average one precursor event per installation per year, when the model was developed, in total somewhat above 100 incidents per year for the entire Norwegian Continental Shelf. The last years, this value has been below 40 per year in total. This is so low value, that it is often just a handful of incidents that are dominating with respect to the actual level of the indicator each year. Thus, the approach to the total indicator should be further developed in order to make it more robust.
At NTNU we are conducting research in order to propose a model with a broader basis for the total indicator in RNNP. By defining a broader basis, one should avoid the situation that only a few incidents dominate with respect to the value of the indicator.
PSA has the last couple of years focused significantly on risk expressing the uncertainty about what accidents that may occur. One of the additional aims is for the new total indicator in RNNP is to be able to reflect also aspects of uncertainty. Also other elements are considered as basis for the total indicator. The work will be finished in mid 2016.